Affaires et finance
Loonie gains on higher oil prices; USD faces headwinds
As at the date of publication, the Canadian dollar appreciated against the Greenback to its highest level in two weeks reaching 75.9 US¢/CAD. The Loonie appreciated on the heels of a rise in oil prices, which climbed to their highest level in 2019 driven by a combination of Saudi supply cuts, U.S. sanctions on OPEC members Iran and Venezuela, and a dovish Fed. BMO noted that the CAD was driven by foreign events rather than domestic ones, and with lower growth projections and a more cautious Bank of Canada (“BoC”), the dollar is likely to hover around 75.2 US¢/CAD throughout 2019. On the contrary, National is more optimistic about the Loonie’s prospects, highlighting that with increases in oil prices and unimpeded global trade flows, it sees the dollar closer to 78.7 US¢/CAD by mid-2019.
In the U.S., Chairman Powell highlighted headwinds at a January 30 press conference; specifically signs of slowing global growth, uncertainty over trade policy and tighter financial conditions. National adds commentary stating that aside from the occasional bouts of strength – coinciding with Fed signals or the return of risk aversion – it expects a mostly downward trend for the trade-weighted U.S. Greenback. Overall, the surveyed banks lack consensus as to the future of the pair, forecasting the currency pair to trade between 74.0 and 82.0 US¢/CAD by Q4 of 2020.
Publié le 8 mars 2019